By: Stephen Jones, Reporting from Tokyo, Japan. This past week, Pakistan launched an anticipated military offensive into the South Waziristan tribal agency, a stronghold of the Mehsud tribal Taliban, but the militants have already demonstrated considerable resistance in the strategically important town of Koktai. The military seeks to conclude the campaign within two months, but overestimated expectations of airpower could lead to a longer mission, with retaliatory attacks highly probable during the course of the conflict. Koktai, which is the hometown of apparent Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leader Hakimullah Mehsud and a senior deputy, Qari Hussain, lies on the route to a major militant base in Sararogha. Earlier this week, the Pakistan military pushed into the town during a three-prong attack, but reports indicate that just a day later, the Taliban repelled the advance. The setback does not augur overall defeat, but it underscores the difficulty of uprooting a tenacious force fighting on its home ground. The Mehsud tribe, in particular, was historically problematic for British colonial troops, and Pakistani troops are now experiencing a similar level of defiance. Attempts to encourage local Mehsud tribal leaders to counter the Taliban effectively failed, as the tribal leaders either supported the militants or feared retaliation. The Taliban had already killed a number of village leaders in the area. However, the government did reach an agreement with two Waziri tribal Taliban commanders, Maulvi Nazir and Hafiz Gul Bahadar, who vowed to remain neutral during the offensive. This largely removed the potential of attacks from the military's rear and right flanks. In return, the Waziris, who are rivals with the Mehsud, will be allowed passage through military blockades, assuring uninterrupted distribution of food and goods. For the United States, the agreement with the Waziri leaders is less amenable, since the militants are connected with Sirajuddin Haqqani, who is a key Taliban commander in neighboring Afghanistan. Under the requests of Al Qaida and the Afghan Taliban, Nazir and Bahadar had previously formed an alliance with then TTP leader, Baitullah Mehsud. Yet, the killing of Baitullah during a US-manned drone strike last August led to the dissolution of the United Mujahideen Council. As for the current arrangement between the military and the Waziri leaders, it is tenuous at best, and both sides are apparently aware of this. The military's most intangible advantage is the continuation of public support. In the past, many Pakistanis were sympathetic with the Taliban, viewing military operations as placation to US interests. This changed earlier this year when the Taliban violated a truce in Swat Valley, and much of the public now views the Taliban as the greater evil. Given this dynamic, this week's suicide bombing against the International Islamic University Islamabad (IIUI) stood more to stoke opposition against the militants rather than to sow fear or recrimination against the government. That suicide bombings will not necessarily spur anger towards the government, as they did in the past, is significant, since more attacks will occur. Assessment: The offensive in South Waziristan is Pakistan's most ambitious and important response to the country's growing Taliban threat. The agency is the primary stronghold of the TTP, the country's largest Taliban association, but any notable victory will not come easy. Proponents of airpower had reportedly assumed that the operation would only take two weeks, but this week's battle of Koktai highlighted the enemy's notable skills and formidability. Concerns are also growing that a number of Taliban militants have regrouped in southern Punjab province, potentially creating a more troublesome front. Additionally, while the deal with the Waziri Taliban might prove advantageous now, it is awash with potential future problems; certainly, Washington, a principal source of funding, will not condone continued neutrality with the factions. The focus now, however, is the defeat of the TTP.
The Zimbabwean power-sharing government continues to undermine its own potential for progress by continuing with vindictive infighting that threatens the integrity of the current administration. The latest issue is the indictment and arrest of Roy Bennett, a senior member of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), on allegations of terrorism. The indictment is seen as a political move and has caused Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai to cancel all his "government appointments" until the issue is resolved. In February, as the power-sharing government was beginning to form, only hours before the swearing in, police arrested Bennett, the MDC Treasurer and appointee to be deputy minister of agriculture, on charges of terrorism and treason. Bennett, a white farmer, has long been opposed to the President Robert Mugabe's government and is alleged to have been linked to funding an attack against a telecommunications station in Bromley. Bennett had only returned to Zimbabwe a month before after two years in exile after having fled allegations that he had been in an assassination plot against Mugabe. Bennett was released days later and the treason charge was dropped, but he still faces charges of insurgency, terrorism, and banditry. After days of delays Zimbabwean Magistrate Livingstone Chipadze ruled that Bennett should face trial on terrorism charges. Bennett was remanded to police custody. Hundreds of people rallied outside the courthouse in Mutare in support of Bennett. A heavy police presence was reported in the city but no clashes occurred. Bennett was held in custody for over three weeks before a High Court ruled against the prosecution's efforts to deny him bail. Despite the ruling Bennett remained in prison while the government appealed to the Supreme Court. Nearly two weeks later, the Zimbabwean Supreme Court ruled against the effort by the government to deny bail to Bennett. He was formally released from prison and immediately issued a statement decrying human rights abuses that take place within Zimbabwean prisons. The issue lay fallow for sometime as Zimbabwe was struggling to strengthen the power-sharing government and improve its economic and political standing. Then Zimbabwean prosecutors filed an indictment on 13 October. Bennett was ordered to return to prison the next day following the court's acceptance of the indictment on charges of terrorism and various other crimes. Bennett has been denied bail and is scheduled to begin his trial on 19 October. His legal team is currently attempting to appeal to the Zimbabwean Supreme Court to secure bail for Bennett. In response to Bennett's continued detention Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai cancelled a cabinet meeting scheduled for Thursday as well as all "government appointments." An official linked to Tsvangirai stated that the prime minister had cancelled the meeting because Tsvangirai "had other pressing issues which relate to the global political agreement which he had to personally attend to and address." The global political agreement is the pact that established the power-sharing government and while these "pressing issues" were not made public it is believed that to be Bennett's arrest. The effort to move forward with his detention has raised concerns about the future stability of the power-sharing government. Assessment: The current administration in the country has existed for less than a year, yet has faced a number of challenges linked to infighting between the composite parties. The most threatening issue has been the effort to eliminate the MDC's legislative majority by the use of legal pressure against its membership. These efforts are directly linked to Mugabe and his Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) but have failed to disrupt the current political alignment in the country. The MDC for its part will not leave the power-sharing government because to do so would only serve to strengthen Mugabe and would provide nothing for the country. However, infighting in the administration is likely to continue in the foreseeable future and will limit Zimbabwe's capacity to pass new legislation, improve economically, or engage in meaningful political reform.
By: Stephen Jones, reporting from Tokyo, Japan. Last weekend, Islamic extremists laid siege to Pakistan's Army General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi for roughly 18 hours, exposing security vulnerabilities and underscoring the rising influence of the Punjabi-based Taliban. The military is presumably set to launch a major offensive in the Pakistani Taliban's principal stronghold, South Waziristan, but as last weekend's brazen raid demonstrated, the militants are capable of striking almost any target of choice. Last weekend's assault began when ten Islamic radicals, allegedly led by Taliban commander Doctor Usman (Mohammed Aqeel), entered the GHQ's compound, eventually taking more than 40 people hostage. Nearly a day later, commandos freed 39 of the hostages, killing nine of the militants and capturing Usman. Fourteen troops, including a brigadier general and a lieutenant colonel, died during the standoff. On Monday, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack, noting that its "Punjab branch" was involved. Separate reports indicated that five of the instigators were from the northwest's South Waziristan tribal region and the five others from Punjab province. In August, a US-manned drone reportedly killed TTP leader Baitullah Mehsud during a missile strike, and the GHQ raid was apparently a retaliatory response. Usman was previously a member of the Pakistani Army Medical Corps just three years ago, but he then reportedly joined the radical Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) faction. Authorities detained Usman for his alleged involvement in the September 2008 bombing of a major US-based hotel in Islamabad, but the militant eventually secured his release. Usman also had reported ties with Ilyas Kashmiri, who formed the Amjad Farooqi Group (AFG). A US-manned drone strike supposedly killed Kashmiri, but recent reports claim that he is still alive. Like Usman, Kashmiri was a former soldier serving as a Pakistan Special Services Group commando. Kashmiri and Usman also shared Punjabi origins, lending to the AFG's alternate name, the Punjabi Taliban. The AFG was allegedly responsible for a February 2007 suicide bombing at Islamabad International Airport in a failed bid to assassinate former Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz. Usman and Kashmiri illustrate a disconcerting linkage between former Punjabi-based military personnel and the Pakistan Taliban. During the past few years, the northwest border region with Afghanistan has been the focal point of Islamic radicalism in Pakistan, but the country's jihadist movement largely originated in Punjab, where the military had recruited men to fight the Russians during the Afghan War and subsequently the Indians in Kashmir. Along with the JeM, militant factions that formed in Punjab include the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), and the Sunni-radical Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP). The LeT, in particular, has carried out a number of major attacks in India, including the November 2008 Mumbai siege. Over the years, these factions have developed relations with Al Qaida and the northwest Taliban factions. Assessment: Given the focus on the northwestern region, Punjab has relatively escaped scrutiny as a volatile region. Yet, as the GHQ raid demonstrated, the Punjabi jihadists are emerging as a formidable source of insecurity. As one Pakistani analyst stated, 'South Punjab has become the hub of jihadism. Yet, somehow, there are still many people in Pakistan who refuse to acknowledge this threat.' Moreover, many of these militants have roots in the military or at least strong connections with the armed services and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Along with directly threatening Pakistan, these factions and the integral networks involved continue to undercut relations with India, whether through instigating attacks in Kashmir and other parts of India or striking Indian interest in other countries, such as the Indian Embassy in Afghanistan. Pakistani forces have made notable gains in routing out Taliban cells in the northwestern district of Swat and nearby areas, and the government appears ready to soon commence another offensive in South Waziristan, which will likely prove the most difficult but strategically important operation. Yet, the burgeoning Punjabi front could hinder the military's advances in the northwest, raising concerns about overall national security and the country's nuclear arsenal. Undoubtedly, the Taliban will rely heavily on its networking assets, and this activity will most likely lead to a pronounced rise in retaliatory attacks. The militants already proved they could hit the heart of the military, and this act alone could inspire similarly audacious strikes. Security forces have few effective resources to counter such threats, and all cities remain vulnerable. While such attacks are likely to mainly target military and government sites, all Western entities and personnel are equally susceptible to attacks.
By: Lindsay Ramirez On Friday, the bodies of anywhere from 12 to 17 men killed by a criminal organization that identified itself as ‘El Jefe de Jefes’ (Chief of Chiefs) were discovered at various locations in the cities of Chilpancingo and Acapulco, Guerrero State. Near Chilpancingo, the grisly discoveries took place at Las Parotas, the Tierra Prietas sector of the Zumpango-Chilpancingo federal highway, and near a garbage dump in the Tepechicotlan neighborhood. Near Acapulco, bodies turned up in the communities of Las Plazuelas, El Salto, Ejido Viejo, and San Agustin. Most of the victims were bound at the hands and feet with duct tape and shot execution style; at least eight of the bodies were discovered alongside narcomensajesstating: “this is what will happen to all the rats who kidnap and extort.” The message, with its obvious vigilante justice undertones, is likely an effort to ingratiate the group with the local populace in the midst of violence rivalries between organized crime groups. That same day, three suspected drug traffickers were killed and one Mexican soldier was injured in a shootout that erupted between some 20 suspected Los Zetas members and nearly 200 government security troops in the De Guevara sector of Magdalena, Jalisco State. Police were reportedly conducting a security operation in the neighborhood when assailants opened fire on the group; additional officers and soldiers in two helicopters soon arrived on scene as reinforcements. A number of the suspected criminals escaped and sought refuge in the nearby mountains; however, police arrested at least seven individuals and confiscated various weaponry and fragmentation grenades following the firefight. A number of violent incidents targeting particular individuals were also reported over the weekend. On Friday, the dismembered body of the Director of the Department of Motor Vehicles in Baja California State was discovered hanging from a bridge along the primary Tijuana-Playas de Rosarito roadway; the victim had been kidnapped the prior Wednesday in the La Sierra neighborhood of the same city while driving with his daughter. That same day, the 66-year-old leader of a local human rights organization was gunned down as he drove with his wife in a central zone of Nuevo Casas Grandes, Chihuahua State. Assessment: With violence reaching record levels, it is unclear what options remain available to President Felipe Calderon, who has already deployed more than 50,000 soldiers and thousands of police to crime hot spots throughout the country. Many of the options that could potentially supplement the government’s security offensive, (such as halting weapons trafficking from the US, renewing efforts to treat drug users in consumer nations, coca eradication in the Andes), lay at least partly outside the purview of Calderon’s administration. At this point, it does not appear that President is even considering alternative strategies, signifying that violence levels in Mexico will likely continue to rise.
Conventional wisdom says the US is succeeding in the so-called War on Terrorism because there has not been an attack on the US mainland since 11 September 2001. The implication is that Islamic extremists have been unable to mount such an attack here. We at TranSecur have never shared that point of view. We believe the US mainland remains vulnerable to a repeat of an event no less devastating than that which occurred here seven years ago. The probability of such an attack is a function of the strategic objectives of terrorist planners, not of US defensive measures. For now, the attack on the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad is another in a long series of highly successful attacks on US targets abroad and on US interests abroad. It is only in the eyes of those who prefer to measure the success of US anti-terrorism provisions by whether the American mainland has been struck that the US is ahead in the so-called War on Terrorism. For terrorist planners, Saturday night’s mass-casualty attack in Islamabad was an attack on the United States, and it succeeded. During the 70s and 80s Palestinian and European terrorists went after Pan American Airways and Trans World Airways because these were America’s pre-eminent flag carriers. Today, the aviation security barn door has been secured somewhat, and while it remains possible to attack US aviation, other American “flag carriers” are more readily at hand and offer the same symbolic value as our airlines once did. Marriott is global and it is quintessentially a symbol of America. It has been many years since terrorists put a premium on the hostage-barricade tactic which sought to draw global media attention to a group’s grievances. The growing successes of counter-terrorist forces such as France’s GIGN, Britain’s 22 SAS, Germany’s GSG-9, and the United States’ DELTA Force and Seal Team 6 neutered the tactic. Apart from that, terrorist planners came to understand that no one cared about their “grievances” anyway, so there was no point in calling attention to them. Since then, beginning around 1982-83, terrorist planners shifted to simply killing large numbers of people to make their point. Initially, “official” targets, e.g. embassies, consulates, and other high-value facilities were preferred, but with these hardened, terrorists began to strike at “soft” targets and these tend to be places where large numbers of people gather as a matter of course. Buses, for example, or places of worship, places of recreation. Thus, any popular hotel is a candidate for the terrorist target folder. Any facility that has to be readily accessible to people is inherently a soft target. Notwithstanding that constraint, Marriott Hotels security is unexcelled in the industry. The Marriott security team has pioneered creative protective measures, and the skillful diplomacy of the managing director of Marriott International has assured the steady support of host governments around the world. It is a terrible testament to that support and to the effectiveness of Marriott security that so many of those killed in Islamabad the day before yesterday, just as the many killed in Jakarta in the unsuccessful attempt on the Marriott there in August 2003, were local national security personnel doing their duty. A metropolitan hotel is inherently difficult to secure. The urban environment permits little or nothing in the way of set-backs that permit the layering of security, and layering is the very essence of physical and procedural security. Without it, a facility is more readily vulnerable to attack with stand-off weapons, and it is extremely vulnerable to suicide attack using vehicle-borne high explosives. This fact was reaffirmed Saturday night in Islamabad. Also reaffirmed was the fact that terrorists do not have to attack the US mainland in order to attack US targets.
Thomas Malthus was an 18th century Cambridge-trained mathematician of wide-ranging interests and expertise. Malthus saw humanity, owing to its own natural inclinations, as the agent of its own demise. He predicted populations would increase geometrically while food production increased arithmetically, with the result that mankind eventually would face starvation and conclusive chaos as a result of the imbalance. There were flaws in Malthus’ calculation, including the failure to anticipate discoveries leading to exponential increases in food production. Malthus has become a byword for those who scoff at calculations predicting this or that calamity, usually resulting from some excessive behavior from which they take pleasure, profit, or other benefit, and which they wish to continue. Malthus, they say, was wrong about population growth leading to demographic catastrophe, and his example is used to dismiss contemporary worries about such things as, say, global warming. And yet, the Director of National Intelligence, Mike McConnell, recently cited population growth as a global threat. Thus, Malthus may have been not wrong, but merely ahead of his time. Over the past week we have considered the circumstances that make the United States vulnerable to the threat of a catastrophic energy shortfall. Inherently, these circumstances are beyond the ability of the US to control. Indeed, these circumstances: a vital resource in the hands of, or vulnerable to pressure from, elements hostile to the United States, constitute a “perfect storm,” threatening decisive damage to US interests globally. Assessment The national leadership insists we can drill our way past a catastrophic energy shortfall by relying on petroleum resources whose existence remains to be proven. Even assuming the known existence of new and reachable oil, and putting aside legislative constraints, and ignoring such time-consuming processes as leasing and licensing, and ignoring as well the fact that the industry does not have enough of the equipment it needs to get at new oil and bring it in – assuming all these problems away for the sake of illustration, the United States will still face an ever-increasing shortage of oil into the foreseeable future. There is no foreseeable scenario in which US oil supplies can match the US demand for oil at present, and no scenario in which US supplies can catch up with US demand in the future. Meanwhile, some of the early evidences of the consequences of the US energy dilemma are clear in sky-rocketing prices for distillates, chiefly gasoline. The effects cascade through the economy as food prices climb due to the cost of moving food to markets. Movie theaters, whose revenues have long been in decline, are enjoying a boom as recreation depending on distant travel is too expensive to indulge. The appearance of gas-guzzling vehicles on highways is visibly reduced, and those who purchased those vehicles are unable to sell them; their resale value often is less than the payments still owed on them. The impact on the automotive industry, overstocked with once-popular “sport utility vehicles,” and behind in the development, production, and popularizing of more fuel-efficient vehicles, is amply documented. In darker developments, oilfield theft, once chronic in the US, is now rampant, and incidents of fraudulent conversion and other criminal activities on the white collar side of the oil business are reported. At local levels, gas cap locks are an increasingly popular item. The hijacking of tanker trucks is an incipient threat. Hijackings will push underwriting costs higher, and the costs will be reflected in oil and gasoline prices. As these indications of distress across the US economy are factored into the strategic planning of the nation’s adversaries, those who are in a position to adversely impact energy supplies to the US should not be expected to ignore the incentive to do so. There is, of course, a short-term counter to the employment of the oil threat against the US. However, it is not one at the disposal of US policymakers or military planners. Rather, it is the simple fact that for a hostile producer to interrupt the outflow of US dollars spent on foreign oil would be foolish. The world is witnessing one of the most massive transfers of wealth in history as the US pays premium prices to satisfy its oil appetite. Those who wish the US ill benefit from that transfer no less than those who wish the US well: rising oil prices lifts all oil economies alike, even as the US economy sinks. Bombs, bullets, and bayonets are not all there is to warfare.
The new year is beginning as the old one ended, with chaos in critical areas of US foreign interests. The most visible crises involve Afghanistan and Pakistan, with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto destroying a long-shot strategy of the Bush Administration: the untidy attempt to unite Pervez Musnarrah and former PM Bhutto. Her death opens the door to one of Pakistan's least presentable personalities,her widower Asif ali Zardari. Zardari's instinct for self-aggrandizing corruption can only further exacerbate the already complex problems of a fractious nation, as he assumes the role of regent while the couple's teenage son is groomed to assume his mother's role as head of the Pakistan Peoples Party. The long-term prospects for this attempted dynastic succession are poor. Meanwhile, as we have stated in TranSecur Daily Analytical Briefs, we see the assassination of Bhutto as the beginning of a long-term strategy of destabilization by the emerging Taliban of Pakistan, headed by warlord Baitullah Mesud, in league with Afghanistan's Taliban and al-Qaida. Look for further strikes against leading figures in Pakistan.
|
